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Table 4 Comparative validation of the HCC-SM CMU survival prediction model with conventional scoring systems

From: Natural disease progression and novel survival prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma with spinal metastases: a 10-year single-center study

 Status at 6 monthsSensitivity % (95% CI)Specificity % (95% CI)PPV % (95% CI)NPV % (95% CI)AuROC (95% CI)
SurvivedDiedTotal
HCC-SM CMU prediction model (only green group at 6 months)
Alive2028.7 (1.1–28.0)100.0 (90.0–100.0)100.0 (15.8–100.0)62.5 (48.5–75.1)0.54 (0.48–0.60)
Not alive213556
 233558     
HCC-SM CMU prediction model (green and yellow group at 6 months)
Alive1341756.5 (34.5–76.8)88.6 (73.3–96.8)76.5 (50.1–93.2)75.6 (59.7–87.6)0.73 (0.61–0.84)
Not alive103141
 233558     
Tomita scorea
Alive17153273.9 (51.6–89.8)57.1 (39.4–73.7)53.1 (34.7–70.9)76.9 (56.4–91.0)0.66 (0.53–0.78)
Not alive62026
 233558     
Revised Tokuhashi scoreb
Alive851334.8 (16.4–57.3)85.7 (69.7–95.2)61.5 (31.6–86.1)66.7 (51.0–80.0)0.60 (0.49–0.72)
Not alive153045
 233558     
  1. Abbreviations: AuROC area under receiver operating characteristics curve, CI confidence interval, PPV positive predictive value, NPV negative predictive value
  2. aThe Tomita score predicts the patients to be alive at 6 months if the score is 2–7 points. Patients with a Tomita score of > 8 points are predicted not to be alive at 6 months
  3. bThe Revised Tokuhashi score predicts for the patient to be alive at 6 months if the score is 9–15 points. Patients with a Tomita score of < 9 points are predicted not to be alive at 6 months