Natural disease progression and novel survival prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma with spinal metastases: a 10-year single-center study

Table 4 Comparative validation of the HCC-SM CMU survival prediction model with conventional scoring systems

	Status at 6 months			Sensitivity % (95% CI)	Specificity % (95% CI)	PPV % (95% CI)	NPV % (95% CI)	AuROC (95% CI)
	Survived	Died	Total	Sensitivity % (95% CI)	Specificity % (95% CI)	PPV % (95% CI)	NPV % (95% CI)	AuROC (95% CI)
HCC-SM CMU prediction model (only green group at 6 months)
Alive	2	0	2	8.7 (1.1–28.0)	100.0 (90.0–100.0)	100.0 (15.8–100.0)	62.5 (48.5–75.1)	0.54 (0.48–0.60)
Not alive	21	35	56	8.7 (1.1–28.0)	100.0 (90.0–100.0)	100.0 (15.8–100.0)	62.5 (48.5–75.1)	0.54 (0.48–0.60)
	23	35	58
HCC-SM CMU prediction model (green and yellow group at 6 months)
Alive	13	4	17	56.5 (34.5–76.8)	88.6 (73.3–96.8)	76.5 (50.1–93.2)	75.6 (59.7–87.6)	0.73 (0.61–0.84)
Not alive	10	31	41	56.5 (34.5–76.8)	88.6 (73.3–96.8)	76.5 (50.1–93.2)	75.6 (59.7–87.6)	0.73 (0.61–0.84)
	23	35	58
Tomita score^a
Alive	17	15	32	73.9 (51.6–89.8)	57.1 (39.4–73.7)	53.1 (34.7–70.9)	76.9 (56.4–91.0)	0.66 (0.53–0.78)
Not alive	6	20	26	73.9 (51.6–89.8)	57.1 (39.4–73.7)	53.1 (34.7–70.9)	76.9 (56.4–91.0)	0.66 (0.53–0.78)
	23	35	58
Revised Tokuhashi score^b
Alive	8	5	13	34.8 (16.4–57.3)	85.7 (69.7–95.2)	61.5 (31.6–86.1)	66.7 (51.0–80.0)	0.60 (0.49–0.72)
Not alive	15	30	45	34.8 (16.4–57.3)	85.7 (69.7–95.2)	61.5 (31.6–86.1)	66.7 (51.0–80.0)	0.60 (0.49–0.72)
	23	35	58

Abbreviations: AuROC area under receiver operating characteristics curve, CI confidence interval, PPV positive predictive value, NPV negative predictive value
^aThe Tomita score predicts the patients to be alive at 6 months if the score is 2–7 points. Patients with a Tomita score of > 8 points are predicted not to be alive at 6 months
^bThe Revised Tokuhashi score predicts for the patient to be alive at 6 months if the score is 9–15 points. Patients with a Tomita score of < 9 points are predicted not to be alive at 6 months

ISSN: 1477-7819