Establishment of risk prediction model of postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy: 2016 edition of definition and grading system of pancreatic fistula: a single center experience with 223 cases

Table 3 Univariate and multivariate analysis results of risk factors related to POPF after PD (2005 ISGPF edition)

Variable	Univariate analysis			Multivariate analysis
Variable	Odds ratio	95% CI	P value	Odds ratio	95% CI	P value
Sex (male / female)	1.389	0.648–2.977	0.398
Age (≥ 65 years/<65 years)	0.837	0.392–1.790	0.647
Body mass index (≥23/<23)	1.597	0.767–3.328	0.210
Drinking habit (yes/no)	0.935	0.378–2.314	0.884
Smoking habit (yes/no)	1.131	0.557–2.299	0.733
Diabetes mellitus (yes/no)	0.595	0.253–1.403	0.233
Main pancreatic duct diameter (< 3 mm/≥ 3 mm)	6.464	2.956–14.136	0.000	4.210	1.399–12.669	0.011
Main pancreatic duct index (<0.21/≥ 0.21)	5.532	2.563–11.943	0.000	4.561	1.480–14.059	0.008
Portal vein invasion^a (no/yes)	10.000	1.226–81.534	0.024
Intra-abdominal thickness^b (≥ 69 mm/< 69 mm)	3.083	1.482–6.412	0.002
Preoperative biliary drainage (no/yes)	3.612	1.095–11.913	0.027
Pancreatic cancer (no/yes)	2.687	1.110–6.507	0.025	5.517	1.546–19.688	0.009
Pancreatic resection margin thickness (≥ 15 mm/< 15 mm)	2.200	1.058–4.573	0.032
Pancreas CT value (< 39 HU/≥ 39 HU)	2.681	1.297–5.541	0.007	8.981	2.934–27.490	0.000
White blood cell count (≥ 9.5×10⁹/L/< 9.5×10⁹/L)	0.678	0.109–4.205	0.675
Albumin (< 40 g/L/≥ 40 g/L)	1.395	0.686–2.838	0.358
Total bilirubin (≥ 20 μmol/L/<20 μmol/L)	1.857	0.717–4.813	0.199
Amylase (< 110 IU/L/≥ 110 IU/L)	0.206	0.042–0.999	0.033
CA19-9 (< 39 U/mL/≥ 39 U/mL)	2.096	0.929–4.729	0.112
Pancreaticojejunostomy (dunking method/duct-to-mucosa)	0.960	0.404–2.280	0.926

Continuous variables were classified into two groups as follows: The thresholds of body mass index, main pancreatic duct diameter, main pancreatic duct index, intra-abdominal thickness, pancreatic resection margin thickness, and pancreas CT value were determined based on the median value of each parameter. All laboratory data were divided based on the upper or lower limit of normal range of each parameter
POPF postoperative pancreatic fistula, PD pancreatoduodenectomy, ISGPF International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula, CI confidence
interval, CT computed tomographic scan, CA19-9 carbohydrate antigen 19-9
^aThe tumors that were not attached, compressed, or obviously involved the portal and/or superior mesenteric veins on CT
^bMeasured as the distance from the internal face of rectus abdominis (linea alba) to the rear wall of the aorta at the level of the umbilicus

ISSN: 1477-7819