Table 3 Cut-off values, NPV, PPV, sensitivity and specificity of predictors
Positive class for ROC analysis | Predictor cutoff (POD) | AUC (95% CI) | p-value | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | NPV (%) | PPV (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clavien‒Dindo > 3a | IL-6 (1st) ≥ 113.0 | 0.768 (0.619; 0.918) | 0.002 | 75.0 | 78.6 | 96.4 | 29.0 |
IL-6 (3rd) ≥ 180.5 | 0.859 (0.699; 1.000) | < 0.001 | 72.7 | 99.0 | 97.0 | 88.9 | |
CRP (3rd) ≥ 113.8 | 0.844 (0.721; 0.968) | < 0.001 | 90.0 | 78.9 | 98.2 | 37.5 | |
Clavien‒Dindo > 2 | IL-6 (1st) ≥ 113.0 | 0.713 (0.558; 0.867) | 0.010 | 64.3 | 78.2 | 94.0 | 29.0 |
IL-6 (3rd) ≥ 34 | 0.808 (0.684; 0.933) | < 0.001 | 84.6 | 77.1 | 97.4 | 33.3 | |
CRP (3rd) ≥ 113.8 | 0.844 (0.721; 0.968) | < 0.001 | 90.0 | 78.9 | 98.2 | 37.5 | |
ICU > 5 days | IL-6 (1st) ≥ 89.3 | 0.733 (0.627; 0.838) | < 0.001 | 69.7 | 76.8 | 86.3 | 54.8 |
IL-6 (3rd) ≥ 25.0 | 0.761 (0.660; 0.862) | < 0.001 | 78.1 | 74.0 | 89.1 | 55.6 | |
CRP (3rd) ≥ 109.0 | 0.796 (0.682; 0.910) | < 0.001 | 70.4 | 88.9 | 85.7 | 76.0 | |
Hospital stay > 10 days | IL-6 (1st) ≥ 89.3 | 0.726 (0.617; 0.836) | < 0.001 | 70.0 | 75.3 | 87.7 | 50.0 |
IL-6 (3rd) ≥ 60.9 | 0.740 (0.619; 0.861) | < 0.001 | 51.7 | 96.3 | 84.6 | 83.3 | |
CRP (3rd) ≥ 146.0 | 0.740 (0.605; 0.874) | < 0.001 | 56.5 | 91.4 | 84.1 | 72.2 | |
ATB treatment | IL-6 (1st) ≥ 104.0 | 0.750 (0.633; 0.866) | < 0.001 | 70.8 | 79.1 | 91.1 | 47.2 |
IL-6 (3rd) ≥ 34.2 | 0.782 (0.668; 0.897) | < 0.001 | 73.9 | 82.6 | 92.2 | 53.1 | |
CRP (3rd) ≥ 113.8 | 0.801 (0.679; 0.924) | < 0.001 | 75.0 | 85.2 | 91.2 | 62.5 | |
Inflammatory complication | IL-6 (1st) ≥ 136.5 | 0.729 (0.610; 0.848) | < 0.001 | 55.2 | 90.7 | 85.7 | 66.7 |
IL-6 (3rd) ≥ 34.0 | 0.753 (0.640; 0.865) | < 0.001 | 67.9 | 82.7 | 88.2 | 57.6 | |
CRP (3rd) ≥ 113.8 | 0.827 (0.714; 0.940) | < 0.001 | 77.3 | 88.1 | 91.2 | 70.8 |